I took into account multiple things when considering who makes the top half of NFL Quarterbacks.
- His Talent/Teams Talent
- Stats (My Prediction)
- Upside or Future Ability
- Strength of Schedule
- Philip Rivers
Reasoning: He has a ton of talent around him and a very winnable division this season with a lot of personnel turnover having taken place. He is the most tenured QB in the division and if he doesn’t find a way to win the conference this year the Chargers could be looking to find his replacement sooner rather than later. He does still have the talent to throw the ball but he’s a third-tier quarterback that we believe will have a good season due to the talent around him as well. He has limited upside other than he’s better than Eli Manning if that is even upside.
Stat Prediction: 4,180 YDS 32 TD 16 INT 61.0% COMP
Best Game Prediction: Vs Steelers 12/2/18 (350+ 3 TDS)
- Matthew Stafford
Reasoning: The lions don’t seem like they have gotten a whole lot better this off-season and while we do expect Stafford to throw the ball a lot in attempt to stay in games he is barely a top 15 QB and is severely overpaid leading to such a low ranking on this list. You can’t be paid this high and not produce more wins for your ball club. The lions won’t win a championship with Stafford at Quarterback.
Stat Prediction: 4,500 YDS 28 TD 15 INT 66.3% COMP
Best Game: Vs Patriots 9/23/18 (400+ 3TDS)
- Deshawn Watson
Reasoning: Don’t fully know what to expect out of Watson this season due to his injury and not getting a full year to watch him play. But he is throwing to a great receiving core and has a good RB, so he has the weapons to be successful. I’m looking for him to throw for just over 225 yards a game and at least 2 TD’s just because of his weapons alone. If he can continue to be the talent he shows signs of last year than he is far to low on this list but we’re being conservative with our predictions.
Stat Prediction: 3,800 YDS 32 TD 16 INT 61.5% COMP
Best Game: Vs Browns 12/2/18 (350+ 4 TDS)
- Patrick Mahomes
Reasoning: He has only played one game and dint throw a TD in that game. However, we have seen enough of him in college to know that he is going to be a gun slinger for this Chiefs’ offense. They have countless weapons at both WR, TE, and RB that will lead to nothing but instant success for this young QB. He will throw the ball a whole lot this season and will have good and bad moments along the way. He got the nod over Watson due to not having to comeback from injury, and we believe the Chiefs will score more points than the Texans this season.
Stat Prediction: 4,250 YDS 33 TD 17 INT 63.6% COMP
Best Game: Steelers 9/16/18 (350+ 3 TDS)
- Carson Wentz
Reasoning: He was on pace to win MVP and had he done so, he would be much higher on this list. However, having to comeback from injury to peer over his shoulder or even look in the stands and see Nick Foles the Super Bowl MVP will lead to a pressure not usually good for the Quarterback position. If he can get past the early part of the season and the Eagles are winning he’ll be safe, but Wentz now has pressure to perform and does have the talent to be good in a division that is looking very weak.
Stat Prediction: 4,075 YDS 34 TD 11 INT COMP 60.9%
Best Game: Saints 11/18/18 (325+ YDS 4 TDS)
11 Russell Wilson
Reasoning: People may think this is way to low, but honestly his one Super Bowl win has him too highly coveted in my opinion. His offensive line also does him no favors which is going to make it harder for him to make good decision and stay upright. He’s obviously talented but his team is no longer good enough to support some of the flaws he lacks as a QB. He isn’t the tallest guy, nor does he throw the best ball, but he has been able to win for the last few years, now that that is changing I’m not sure how good he’ll be on a bad Seattle team. They’ll have no option but to throw the ball as they will be playing catch up most the year to teams like the Rams and 49ers.
Stat Prediction: 4,000 YDS 29 TD 16 INT 62.1% COMP
Best Game: Bears 9/17/18 (300+ YDS 3+ TDS)
- Andrew Luck *If Healthy
Reasoning: He hasn’t played football in so long I wanted to leave him off this list altogether, but if he can play all 16 games this season than being ranked 10 should be low. That is a huge if for someone who hasn’t played football in well over a year, but hopefully he can return to form and give us a talented fantasy Quarterback who’ll have to throw the ball nearly every play to win games.
Stat Prediction: 4200 YDS 32 TD 14 INT 60.3% COMP
Best Game: Dolphins 11/25/18 (350+ YDS 3 TDS)
- Cam Newton
Reasoning: He hasn’t passed for over 4,000 yards since his rookie year, and with more attention being given to the run game we don’t believe he’ll have an amazing season throwing the ball. We think he’ll find the end zone a little more often as the Panthers offense should be good, we think he could throw for about 2 TD’s a game and close to a pick a game as well. We have the panthers going 8-8 this year and we don’t think highly of their players outside of Christian going into the 2018 season.
Stat Prediction: 3,500 YDS 28 TD 14 INT 59.9% COMP 650 RYDS 7 TDS
Best Game: Browns 12/9/18 (400+ APYDS 4+ APTD) AP* All Purpose
- Jared Goff
Reasoning: He has a great relationship with his head coach, maybe the best in the league right now. Especially since brady and Belichick have been having differences for well over a year now. McVay is an offensive genius and has added multiple weapons alongside Goff to help him have an even better 3rd season. Last year McVay said “our focus was to get better as a team, going into this off-season it’s to make the quarterback better”. Lost in an offseason of splashy moves, McVay has been having sleep overs with his young QB to study and talk football late into the night. I’m Looking for Goff to make the biggest leap in 2018 out of any the Quarterbacks named.
Stat Prediction: 4,100 YDS 32 TD 12 INT 63.5% COMP
Best Game: Bears 12/9/18 (350+ YDS 3+ TD)
- Derek Carr
Reasoning: Derek Carr and the Raiders will be back to form in 2018 under what I believe to be an inspired and smart coach in Jon Gruden. He was given a heap of money to come back to the NFL and he couldn’t have come to a better situation. Having Amari Cooper, Jordy Nelson, and Martavis Bryant running routes for him this year with a QB guru at the helm this should be a very pass happy offense. We slide him past Goff only because we expect him to be better this upcoming with no real chance of a drop off. He could be a very possible MVP candidate if they win their division.
Stat Prediction: 4,300 YDS 32 TD 9 INT 63.6% COMP
Best Game: Browns 9/30/18 (400+ YDS 3 TD)
- Kirk Cousins
Reasoning: With Kirk finally going to an organization who has committed to him long-term with a great offense and defense around him? The Vikings are absolutely the team I do not want to see in the post season. Kirk will have a career year with the weapons he’ll have in Minnesota, they are strong and deep at every position with plenty of big names and low egos ready to prove themselves. Watch out for Thielen, Rudolph and Diggs in 2018, point blank and period.
Stat Prediction: 4,600 YDS 30 TD 12 INT 67.3% COMP
Best Game: Patriots 12/2/18 (300 YDS 3+ TDS)
- Ben Roethlisberger
Reasoning: The Steelers are always one of the teams I pick to make a leap due to their talent, now with a young QB having been drafted I’m looking for Big Ben to have some BIG performances this season. This year could very well be the year, the patriots look beatable from within and without, and most of the Quarterbacks atop this list are sitting in the NFC. Meaning he’ll have a good chance to break through for another Super Bowl appearance this season if the locker room and defense can get find any sort of normalcy.
Stat Prediction: 4,400 YDS 35 TD 13 INT
Best Game: Browns 10/28/18 (300 YDS 4 TDS)
- Tom Brady
Reasoning: His game will decline eventually right? I get he’s Tom Brady and every other year I usually compare him to Lebron and say he’ll continue to be good, but I want to say there will be signs of decline with Tom Brady but only by his standards. I think they Patriots will find it difficult to win many games outside of their horrendous division this season, but thankfully they’re in the worst division in football and Brady will benefit from that for 6 games of the year. I think his Interceptions will be on the rise this season and he’ll be a little more mistake prone as he’ll have to make up for what looks to be a bad defense. ESPN has him ranked way too highly as he is nearing 41 years of age, he may be the GOAT but that doesn’t mean he is the best Quarterback in the NFL right now.
Stat Prediction: 4,100 YDS 31 TD 12 INT
Best Game: Dolphins 9/30/18 (300+ YDS 3+ TDS)
- Drew Brees
Reasoning: He is another player we look to be in decline headed into 2018 but with a good amount of talent around him and his decline being coming down from 5,000 yards a season he’ll still be very good for the Saints and what their going to be doing the next few seasons. They will continue to focus the run game and allow Brees to pick his spots, with Ingram out 4 games to start the year we do still think their will be some additionally passing opportunities for Drew Brees to start out the year. Playing in one of the tougher conferences with two past MVP’s wins are going to be tough to come by.
Stat Prediction: 4,250 YDS 25 TD 7 INT
Best Game: Falcons 11/22/18 (300+ YDS 3+ TDS)
- Matt Ryan
Reasoning: Winning a playoff game against the highest scoring team in the NFL can only be considered a failure when you’ve come so close to reaching the mountain top. The Falcons were rocky all last season in what had to be a long Super Bowl hangover, but with another year past and their loss no longer being the subject of discussion I’m looking for Atlanta to find that groove that led them to having one of the best offenses of all time led by Matt Ryan. The MVP race will be tight this year in the NFC between Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, and Aaron Rodgers all being very likely pre-season candidates.
Stat Prediction: 4,750 YDS 33 TD 11 INT
Best Game: Saints 11/22/18 (350+ YDS 4 TDS)
- Aaron Rodgers
Reasoning: Coming back from injury, we expect that bad man Aaron Rodgers to be exactly that a bad man. I also have a feeling he’s going to have a career year, utilizing his TE now that he has one of the best in Jimmy Graham. The Packers are also bolstering an easy schedule outside of their division, and aside from a possible split with the Vikings and their year loss to Detroit I think the Packers are set up to win at least 12 if not 14 games this season. Putting Rodgers in the driver seat for league MVP and cementing himself as the obvious choice for being the top Quarterback on our rankings. He’ll have a tough rode to a second Super Bowl, having to possibly go through stacked teams such as the Rams, Falcons, Vikings and not to forget the Super Bowl champion Eagles. The NFC will be Super Bowl Champs.
Stat Prediction: 4,800 YDS 40 TD 5 INT
Best Game: Bears 9/9/18 (400 YDS 5 TDS)